Bismarck and Mandan residents can expect a warmer and generally drier winter this season, according to the winter outlook released by the National Weather Service on Thursday, October 15. The forecast indicates that a warmer weather pattern experienced this fall is likely to continue into winter for North Dakota, with temperatures expected to remain above normal through January.
Megan Jones, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Bismarck office, stated that while above-normal temperatures are anticipated for the early winter months, February and March could see temperatures closer to normal. This outlook is largely influenced by a "super El Nino" pattern, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts will bring warmer temperatures across the plains. Jones cautioned that "warmer" is a relative term when discussing North Dakota winters. However, NWS hydrologist Allen Schlag noted that historical records from past strong El Nino years frequently show average temperatures several degrees above normal during specific months.
For snowfall, Jones indicated that the first measurable snow for the region is likely not until late October to November, particularly across the southern part of the state. While the prediction model does not provide a clear signal on whether overall precipitation will be more or less than usual, Jones has been informing residents to anticipate "below normal snowfall, generally 50 percent of normal for Bismarck." Schlag estimated that Bismarck could see roughly 28 inches of snow this winter, significantly less than the average of 50.5 inches. This estimate is based on records from previous strong El Nino winters, with the most recent occurrence being the 2015-2016 season. Jones also mentioned the possibility of mixed precipitation events, including rain, if temperatures remain sufficiently warm.
The anticipated warmer and drier conditions carry significant implications for local water systems and winter recreation in Burleigh and Morton counties. Allen Schlag highlighted that the net effect of such winters, characterized by warm outbreaks that elevate average temperatures, is a minimal snowpack by the time March and April arrive. This snowpack, he emphasized, is "absolutely imperative for healthy rivers, healthy streams." Without sufficient snowpack, it becomes very difficult to generate any kind of flooding in the spring. This potential lack of snow also has downstream effects, with impacts possibly felt in the Missouri River system and Lake Sakakawea as spring approaches. Flood forecasts are typically released each year in February.
For those who enjoy winter activities, Megan Jones conveyed a less optimistic outlook. She suggested that if residents are hoping for abundant snow and strong ice on the lakes, "it's probably not going to be a great year." Jones concluded that winter recreation, unfortunately, will likely experience a tough season. Allen Schlag further added that residents are unlikely to hear "good ski reports coming out of Montana," underscoring the regional impact of the forecast.
While El Nino years tend to be drier overall, Schlag pointed out that some months can still experience outliers due to short-lived weather drivers. He provided historical examples: during the 1966 El Nino year, Bismarck received 22.7 inches of snow in March, significantly above its average of 8.5 inches and ranking as the sixth snowiest March in 139 years of data. Similarly, February of 1998, another strong El Nino year, was recorded as the second wettest February in terms of both rain and water content within the snow. These historical instances demonstrate that despite the general drier trend, individual heavy precipitation events can still occur.
